Current climate policies put the world on track for about 2.8°C of warming this century, according to the UN Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report 2026, released on 21 October 2026. Even if every national climate pledge is delivered, warming would reach about 2.6°C.
The details
The report, subtitled “The Point of Return”, concludes that keeping warming to 1.5°C with limited overshoot is no longer possible. “Unfortunately we find that the target of 1.5 °C with limited overshoot is no longer possible,” said lead author Michel den Elzen of the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, in a PBL summary.
| Scenario | Projected warming this century |
|---|---|
| Current policies | About 2.8°C |
| All national pledges (NDCs) delivered | About 2.6°C |
| NDCs plus net-zero targets | About 2.1°C |
Why the 2026 emissions gap matters for impact organizations
To bring warming back toward 1.5°C after an overshoot, the report says global emissions must fall 18% below 2025 levels by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040. National pledges currently deliver only 5 to 8% by 2030 and 11 to 15% by 2035, according to the PBL summary.
- Adaptation becomes unavoidable. A world heading past 2°C needs more spending on resilience. Water, heat and food security programs in MENA and Africa are likely to become more central to climate funding.
- Mitigation ventures still have a market. The gap between pledges and required cuts is large, and the policies needed to close it create demand for clean energy, efficiency and low-carbon agriculture.
- Credibility matters. With targets slipping, funders are likely to look harder at verified emissions reductions rather than announcements.
For how money is moving, see our summaries of the Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2026 and World Energy Investment 2026.
What’s next
The report lands ahead of COP31 in Antalya from 9 to 20 November 2026, where its findings are expected to feature in negotiations on raising ambition.
FAQ
Current policies lead to about 2.8°C of warming this century, and full delivery of national pledges to about 2.6°C.
Not with limited overshoot, according to the report. It sets out cuts needed to return toward 1.5°C after an overshoot.
18% below 2025 levels by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, on the report’s 1.5°C overshoot pathway.
On 21 October 2026, by the UN Environment Programme.
Sources
- UNEP: Emissions Gap Report 2026
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency: UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026
